It is completely ahistorical to think that democracy cannot collapse in the United States, when it has happened in many other places around the world, says lead researcher Hilmar McGildy.
Former President Donald Trump refused to admit defeat in the presidential election to Joe Biden on November 3 and has launched tireless accusations of voter fraud. This despite the fact that all the documents state otherwise.
On January 6 of the following year, just 14 days before Biden’s inauguration, hundreds of Trump supporters stormed into America’s political heartland.
The purpose was to prevent the official approval of the results of the congressional elections. Five people were killed and dozens injured in the attack.
Even after the latest lawsuit against Trump and the ongoing investigation in the House of Representatives, both of which deal with the Jan. 6 storm, Trump still leads the Republican Party. Trump is also likely to run in 2024.
Three retired US military leaders are now warning the Pentagon of another violent uprising in 2024.
“As we approach the first anniversary of the deadly Capitol Hill uprising, we (all of our three former senior military leaders) are increasingly concerned about the fallout from the 2024 presidential election and the potential for deadly chaos in our defense. , which will set all Americans back from taking risks,” reads a recent column in Washington Post.
Cools the legs
“In Short: We’re Goosebumps to the Bone at the Next Coup,” the article signed by Major General Paul D. Eaton and Brigadier General Stephen M.
– In your opinion, what is the risk of civil war in the United States in 2024?
– It can’t be left out. There is a high risk of spreading political violence. Additionally, we may have a democratic collapse, a transition to a form of authoritarian rule that we have seen in many other countries. But it doesn’t have to be So stag. It depends on how political actors act, Hilmar Megeldy, senior fellow at NORCE Research Center, told Nettavisen.
The consolidation of the political situation. Both sides view each other as an existential threat, Migildy says, and the restraint and willingness to cooperate that underpins democracy are absent.
Megildy says if there are illiberal leanings outside the left, the main problem is Republicans.
– They have transformed into a right-wing outer party that is determined to overthrow democracy and resort to political violence. He said he showed an attempt to steal the 2020 election and a violent attack on Congress on January 6.
Countermajority tendencies in the political system mean that the minority party, i.e. Republicans, can win both the White House and the Senate without representing the majority of voters in the country. This in turn is seen as illegitimate on the left, says Migildi.
It’s a shame to see the United States sticking internally. Unfortunately, that’s what will happen. Mjelde says it is completely ahistorical to believe that democracy cannot collapse in the United States, when it has happened in many other places around the world.
A scenario that must be taken seriously
Sven Melby, a senior fellow at the Department of Defense Studies, has followed US politics for many decades. He watches developments in the United States with concern.
“Do you think there might be civil war conditions in the United States, Melby?”
– Previously, such a scenario would have been dismissed as completely unthinkable. But now it’s a scenario that needs to be taken seriously. I don’t think it would most likely lead to civil war conditions in the United States, but there are a lot of things that point in the wrong direction in terms of internal unity and stability in the United States, which could go wrong turn. , Melby tells Netavizen.
Norway must take this seriously, especially now that we have created a new defense committee which will examine the prospects for Norwegian defense and security policy, Melby said.
Melby refers to the new Defense Committee recently appointed by the Stoer government. Composed of 17 members and chaired by Knut Storberget, the Defense Committee intends to “evaluate the options and priorities of the security and defense policy that Norway can adopt to protect Norwegian security”.
We have to keep in mind that there are developmental features in American politics that mean things can get really bad. The way we define American democracy can no longer be taken for granted. It may also have an impact on the role of the United States internationally. We can risk a development in which the United States can no longer play a leading role internationally, says Melby.
Closer to Civil War than you think
Retirees aren’t the only ones worried about democracy in the United States. Barbara F. Walter is a political scientist and professor at the University of California, San Diego. She is also a member of the CIA Advisory Board.
The task of the Political Instability Task Force is to monitor countries around the world and predict which ones are at risk of violent collapse. This CIA task force cannot, by law, monitor and assess its own country – the United States. But Walter used the same methods in the United States that she used to monitor countries like Syria, Lebanon, Northern Ireland, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Rwanda, Angola and Nicaragua, to name a few.
Her conclusion is pretty clear: “We are closer to a civil war than some of us think,” she writes in her new book.How do civil wars start?“.
The book will be out in January.
“If you were an analyst in a foreign country and you looked at events in the United States, the same way you assess events in Ukraine, Ivory Coast or Venezuela, then you would have gone through a checklist assessing the conditions that made civil war possible. . And what you will discover is that the United States is a democracy that was established over 200 years ago, and it occupied very dangerous territory,” Walter writes.
High risk of complete collapse
Additionally, retirees Eaton, Anderson, and Taguba have written that the danger of a defense collapse with subsequent social and political collapses is real. They noted, among other things, that a “worrying number” of those who took part in the storm had veteran backgrounds. More than one in ten of the indictees in the Congressional storm have service histories.
Additionally, there is a group of 124 former military retirees, “Flag Officers 4 America,” who wrote a letter claiming that the 2020 election result was not legitimized.
Another inconvenient point pointed out by retired military leaders is that Brigadier General and Commanding General of the Oklahoma National Guard, Thomas Mancino, refused to follow a direct order from President Joe Biden to introduce vaccinations to his soldiers.
Mancino assumed the governor (Republicans) of Oklahoma was his commander-in-chief, not the president. Retired military leaders write that there is a high risk that the army’s chain of command will be affected by a “total collapse” in a new uprising.
“The idea that fraudulent and unreliable units are organizing to support the “legitimate” commander-in-chief (ed) cannot be dismissed,” they write.
“Imagine two rival leaders – re-elected Biden giving orders against Trump (or someone like Trump) giving orders as a shadow head of state. Or worse, imagine politicians at the state and federal levels illegally nominating a losing candidate for president.
Retired military leaders point out that even if all military officials take an oath to protect the country’s constitution, the outcome of a contentious election could put loyalty on the line. They do not rule out a case where some follow the orders of the legitimate commander-in-chief, while others choose to follow the orders of a “loser of the trumpet”.
Get rid of those who would revolt
Retired military leaders offer concrete actions the Pentagon can take to avoid the worst-case scenario, in which the loyalties of the US military are split in two.
“Now that the country is more divided than ever, we must act to prepare for the worst,” they wrote.
Read also: – This war is over. trump won
In short, Eaton, Anderson and Taguba want the Pentagon to conduct a community review of the Constitution and election integrity of all of its military and civilian officials.
Eaton, Anderson and Taguba also believe the Pentagon should strengthen defense “unity of command” – all of which correspond to a leader at the top. The goal is to ensure that employees should never be uncertain as to where loyalty should lie, and that they should never be uncertain as to what orders to follow in an imaginary situation.
Additionally, they want to conduct intelligence operations across the defense to identify, isolate, and exclude elements likely to commit an insurgency. They also call on the Pentagon to guard against the spread of disinformation and propaganda aimed at undermining military lines of command.
“Finally, the Ministry of Defense should carry out war maneuvers on a possible upcoming electoral uprising or coup attempt to identify weaknesses. Then they should assess the results from top to bottom and put in place safeguards to prevent collapse – not just in defense, but in every agency working closely with defense,” Eaton wrote, Anderson and Taguba.
They concluded: “Looking back, defense and lawmakers could prevent another uprising in 2024, but they will only succeed if they act now.