The gender gap in American politics is only getting wider

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WASHINGTON — If it’s Tuesday… Ukraine’s Zelensky addresses the UN Security Council. … President Biden, Vice President Harris and Barack Obama talk about the Affordable Care Act at the White House. … Ketanji Brown Jackson is on course to be confirmed with 53 votes in the Senate. … John Fetterman announces a $3.1 million fundraiser for a quarter in the Pennsylvania Senate. … NBC’s Benjy Sarlin breaks down the IPCC climate report. …and California voters go to the polls in the special election to replace former Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Calif.

But first: the gender gap in American politics is widening and widening and widening.

Even after the Trump years.

Just look at the numbers from our NBC News poll.

In our combined 2010 polls, Republicans held a 9-point advantage among men in congressional preference, and Democrats held a 7-point advantage among women, producing a gender gap of 16 points.

In our combined 2018 polls – during Donald Trump’s midterm election – the gender gap widened to 25 points, with Republicans up 4 points in men’s and Democrats ahead in women 21 points.

And in our combined 2022 polls so far, the gender gap has now widened to 33 points, with Republicans holding an 18-point advantage in men and Democrats a 15-point advantage in women.

The polarization of education has contributed to widening this gender gap.

In 2010, Republicans enjoyed an 8-point lead among men without a college degree; it is now 20 points. (By comparison, the GOP had a 13-point lead among men with college degrees; it’s now 10 points.)

Also in 2010, Democrats had a 10-point lead among women with college degrees; it is now inflated to 38 points. (By comparison, Democrats were only up 3 points in women without a college degree; and it’s now 1 point.)

And that educational polarization has produced this reality: The swing voting blocs in our current politics are men with college degrees and women without them.

Tweet of the day

Downloading data: The day number is … 12

That’s the number of high-profile GOP incumbents facing Trump-backed primary challenges in races that will test the former president’s power in the Republican Party, NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard reports. The figure includes Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and nine House GOP members.

Hillyard sat with two of those House members facing the main Trump-endorsed challengers: South Carolina Rep. Tom Rice and Michigan Rep. Fred Upton, who both voted to impeach Trump after the attack. of January 6 at the Capitol.

“It doesn’t even have anything to do with Republican ideals. Trump demands absolute loyalty,” Rice told Hillyard. “That’s what he’s talking about.”

Other numbers you need to know today:

$3.1 million: That’s how much Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman raised in the first fundraising quarter of 2022 for the Pennsylvania Senate race, bringing his total to $15 million, according to a news release.

$2.5 million: How much is the Florida Democratic Party spending on a voter registration campaign aimed at Latino voters, which Democrats try to win backby Politico.

80 395 229: The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States, according to the most recent data from NBC News and health officials.

987 998: The number of deaths in the United States from the virus so far.

Midterm roundup: Today’s not-so-special election

Voters head to the polls today in California’s 22nd district for the low-key special election to replace former GOP Rep. Devin Nunes, who stepped down to lead Trump’s social media company. The eventual winner will only serve for a short time – as the Nunes district was dismantled in the redistricting.

the race characteristics four Republicans and two Democrats, according to the Los Angeles Times. Three candidates are running for full terms in the new 21st District. Candidates from all parties compete on the same ballot for the special election. If no one gets a majority of votes, the top two voters qualify for a special election on June 7.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail:

Nevada Senate: Army veteran Sam Brown launched his first statewide television commercial with a 30-second bio spot in his GOP primary race against former state attorney general Adam Laxalt, which has Trump’s endorsement.

Ohio Senate: Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, endorsed former Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel in the GOP Senate primary.

Georgia 07: Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath released his first television commercial ahead of the May 24 primary, where she will face fellow Democrat Carolyn Bordeaux in this new district. The ad focuses on how her son’s murder prompted McBath to sue for public office.

Nebraska Special 01: The special election to replace former Nebraska GOP Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, who resigned after being convicted of lying to the FBI, has been put into for June 28, according to the Omaha World Herald.

Texas Special 34: There’s another special election in June for Texas’ 34th District, according to the Texas Tribune, where voters will head to the polls June 14 to replace former Democratic Representative Filemon Vela, who resigned to join a lobbying firm.

And Maryland GOP Gov. Larry Hogan announced Monday that he would approve the state’s new congressional map after a court order sent Democratic legislative leaders back to the drawing board. Once the map of Maryland is finalized, there will be four states — New York, Ohio, Kansas and Florida — that have not yet completed mandated redistricting after the 2020 census.

Ad Watch: Irvin Strikes Back

In a new announcement released yesterday, Aurora, Illinois, Mayor Richard Irvin retaliate against the Democratic Governors Association for run an ad criticism of his past as a defense lawyer. Irvin is running for the Republican nomination for governor of Illinois.

In the ad, a news anchor says Republicans have accused Democrats of “interfering” in the GOP primary and a narrator agrees, “that’s for sure [meddling].” At the end, the narrator adds: “The next time you see [Gov. J.B.] Pritzker smearing Richard Irvin, don’t fall for it.

So far, Irvin has spent nearly $8.5 million on ads in the primary, according to AdImpact, an ad tracking company.

Talking politics with Benjy: We have work to do on the climate

The IPCC, the international group of scientists monitoring climate change, released its latest report on Monday, outlining steps the world can take to avoid its worst effects.

As Evan Bush of NBC News noted in his article, the report contained both good news and bad news. A handy chart even listed a variety of hopeful “signs of progress,” as well as “continuing challenges” to temper any optimism right next to it.

For example, the best news might be that renewable energy technology and business has advanced rapidly, with solar panel costs falling 85% in a decade and electric vehicle production taking off. The bad news is that it still isn’t happening fast enough – and emissions are rebounding globally after plummeting during the pandemic. Even in the best-case scenario, the world is unlikely to continue warming below its original target of 1.5 degrees Celsius.

” We are at the crossroads. Now is the time to act. We have the tools and the know-how to limit warming and ensure a viable future,” IPCC Chairman Hoesung Lee said at a press conference announcing the report.

ICYMI: What else is going on in the world?

Senate leaders announced they had reached consensus on more than $10 billion in Covid funding, which does not include global immunization funding.

NBC’s Scott Wong looks at how House Democrats facing tough re-election fights are trying to combat negative perceptions of the economy.

And New Hampshire GOP Governor Chris Sununu said he was just joking when he shed some light on Donald Trump’s mental fitness at last weekend’s Gridiron dinner.

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